NMM analysis

FeaturedNMM analysis

Stock I currently own and figured we would take a look at some early conversations.


Why NMM and not some other company?

This kind of sums it up


1. Growth potential in the sector.

The trick is to find the company with the biggest or big enough growth potential in the respective operating space.  Big enough growth potential is subjective.  You look at the fundamentals, raise any red flags and if the company doesn’t address each point of concern adequately then its a crapshoot and you should probably walk away.

Every now and then companies are honest and you can draw a forecast of future growth. Sadly its usually the prediction that is more valuable, because by the time the street finds out the opportunity is long gone.

So you have to be a little nuts and give in to nutty claims every now and then.  The promise of a pot of gold is outrageous but I guess that as we move along with this trading stuff we have to be a bit nuts to make a buck . Anyhow to identify companies I take the 10000 foot view of the industry then I find the beat up companies and ask some questions. Why did the company get killed? what’s the leadership like. Do they have a vision for the future. what are their prospects like for future growth. What’s the reputation of the company?Then the financials tell the rest of the story. What’s their EBIT or EBITDA (probably the most important metric) then if that number is terrible find out why its terrible and what the plans are to correct. In the case of NMM it was pretty easy, they had contracts expire and a fleet of ships that just sat there. Daily upkeep for giant shipping vessels is not cheap.

Anyhow I got a bit lucky as well since I took that optimistic position 2 months ahead of what they actually released.  Right now after Initial technical analysis I’m gonna watch it pretty damn closely and probably dump more money into it and cross my fingers there’s a couple of tight green bars. haha

If they can re-establish their dividend and climb back up to 9 bucks a share we are money!

Still holding on a long position for nmm. Took a bit of a hit today. Looks like a good amount of people took their money and ran.  Still with new sources of funding, at least the credit is still good. 

At 230 pm today it didn’t look to bad. 

End of day chart. It’s looking like another big drop.  Another buy opportunity for a long position. 

The 1 week view: